Researchers predict justice’s career

Two UT researchers are predicting that, continuing the Democratic control of two of the three branches of federal government, Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor will tip the Supreme Court’s scales of justice toward the liberal side.

Hemant Sharma, political science lecturer, has done thorough research on the conditions surrounding Sotomayor’s appointment and confirmation. The research was directed by John Scheb, interim head of the Department of Political Science. Sharma and Scheb found that Sotomayor could be what they term the “most liberal justice.”

The title is based on a prediction that Sotomayor will vote liberally in 67 percent of cases that appear before the United States Supreme Court. Sharma began studying this topic as part of his doctoral dissertation. He has researched the voting patterns of every justice that has served in the Supreme Court since 1946.

The prediction on Sotomayor is based on key factors surrounding her presidential appointment and Senate confirmation. These factors include the party beliefs of the current president and the president’s approval rating at the time of confirmation.

Sharma also considered the party majority in the Senate and the majority of party votes that the Supreme Court candidate receives during his or her confirmation hearing. Sharma said that Sotomayor should be a comparatively liberal candidate considering President Barack Obama’s approval rating was relatively high at the time of her confirmation and also considering that Democrats have a nearly filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

“It should be proof to voters that their votes matter in more ways than just electing senators and presidents,” Sharma said. “... That is why all elections are so important, including midterm elections.”

Sharma also wanted to caution that the confirmation process largely took place before Obama’s present drop in approval ratings.

Although Sotomayor has the potential to be radically liberal, Sharma believes that she will be less radical in her first few years on the bench.

“It is my observation that justices tend to be more moderate for the first one or two years before they gradually gravitate to their party lines,” Sharma said.

According to Sharma’s analysis, Sotomayor should be voting in the 60-62 percent range during her first few years. However, Sotomayor’s voting records in her previous stint as a federal court judge should not be taken into consideration of her liberalism.

“Supreme Court justices tend to take more liberties because they have more freedom at that level,” Sharma said.

He also observed that Obama’s next Supreme Court appointment could be more liberal than Sotomayor.

“The first appointment most always placates the opposing party and tends to be more moderate,” Sharma said. “Appointments grow more radical the later they occur in the presidency.”

He guessed that Justice John Paul Stevens will be the next justice to vacate his position in the Supreme Court.

In terms of the other justices, Sharma also designated scores to their liberal tendencies as well. Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stevens ranked at 61 percent, Stephen Breyer at 59 percent, Anthony Kennedy at 45 percent, Samuel Alito at 36 percent, John Roberts and Antonin Scalia at 36 percent and Clarence Thomas at 33 percent.

The lower the percentages, the more conservative the voting record. While Sharma’s research has received local media attention, UT College Democrats President Zak Kelley said these types of predictions have a difficult time becoming reality.

“We have had more conservative presidents in the past 25 years, and yet the Supreme Court’s decisions are still typically a close split of 5 to 4,” Kelley said.

Kelley also said that he does believe Sotomayor will be, comparatively, a “more liberal justice.”

Sharma said that he will maintain a close observation of Sotomayor’s voting record, and he intends to print off every decision that Sotomayor rules on.

“I think it will be interesting to see how closely my research correlates with Justice Sotomayor’s voting pattern,” Sharma said.